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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TN-06 ]

Tennessee's 6th District

Mike Croley (D)vsJohnny Garrett (R)

open seat · Lean: R+13 · Incumbent: John Rose (R), not running

9 in 10

Johnny Garrett favored96%

Very likely for Johnny Garrett: a 96 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+13
  • Incumbent:John Rose (R), not running
  • District:6 of 9 in Tennessee
  • Odds:Garrett 96%
  • Margin:Garrett +12.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Garrett +12.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Garrett +12.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Garrett +20.6 to Garrett +4.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Garrett +12.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Croley ahead is positive, Garrett ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+13, worth 22.6 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Garrett +12.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Rose (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Mike Croley (D) vs Johnny Garrett (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 32.0, Republican 68.0. Rose by 36.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
Lean
R+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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