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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WA-01 ]

Washington's 1st District

Suzan DelBene (D)vsMary Silva (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+15 · Incumbent: Suzan DelBene (D)

99 in 100

Suzan DelBene favored>99%

All but certain for Suzan DelBene: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+15
  • Incumbent:Suzan DelBene (D)
  • District:1 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:DelBene >99%
  • Margin:DelBene +40.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

DelBene +40.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
DelBene +40.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
DelBene +32.9 to DelBene +48.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
DelBene +40.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: DelBene ahead is positive, Silva ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+15, worth 26.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Suzan DelBene, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of DelBene +40.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Suzan DelBene (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Suzan DelBene (D, incumbent) vs Mary Silva (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 63.2, Republican 36.8. DelBene by 26.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
D+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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