Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // WA-07 ]

Washington's 7th District

Pramila Jayapal (D)vsNirav Sheth (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+39 · Incumbent: Pramila Jayapal (D)

99 in 100

Pramila Jayapal favored>99%

All but certain for Pramila Jayapal: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+39
  • Incumbent:Pramila Jayapal (D)
  • District:7 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:Jayapal >99%
  • Margin:Jayapal +82.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Jayapal +82.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Jayapal +82.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jayapal +74.6 to Jayapal +90.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Jayapal +82.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jayapal ahead is positive, Sheth ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+39, worth 67.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Pramila Jayapal, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Jayapal +82.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Pramila Jayapal (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Pramila Jayapal (D, incumbent) vs Nirav Sheth (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 84.2, Republican 15.8. Jayapal by 68.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
D+39 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats