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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // WA-05 ]

Washington's 5th District

Carmela Conroy (D)vsMichael Baumgartner (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Michael Baumgartner (R)

8 in 10

Michael Baumgartner favored82%

Likely for Michael Baumgartner: a 82 percent chance of winning. Polls: Michael Baumgartner up 9.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Michael Baumgartner (R)
  • District:5 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:Baumgartner 82%
  • Margin:Baumgartner +5.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Baumgartner +9.0
  • Latest poll:Tavern Research, May 25, Baumgartner +6.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Baumgartner +5.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Baumgartner +5.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Baumgartner +11.9 to Conroy +0.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Baumgartner +9.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Baumgartner +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Conroy ahead is positive, Baumgartner ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Tavern ResearchBaumgartner +6
    May 25 · unrated · 578 LV47 to 53 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Baumgartner +9.0

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Michael Baumgartner (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Carmela Conroy (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.3, Republican 60.7. Baumgartner by 21.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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