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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WA-06 ]

Washington's 6th District

Emily Randall (D)vsTeresa Fox (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+10 · Incumbent: Emily Randall (D)

99 in 100

Emily Randall favored>99%

All but certain for Emily Randall: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+10
  • Incumbent:Emily Randall (D)
  • District:6 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:Randall >99%
  • Margin:Randall +32.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Randall +32.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Randall +32.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Randall +24.2 to Randall +40.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Randall +32.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Randall ahead is positive, Fox ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+10, worth 17.4 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Emily Randall, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Randall +32.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Emily Randall (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Emily Randall (D, incumbent) vs Teresa Fox (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.8, Republican 43.2. Randall by 13.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
D+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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