Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // WA-09 ]

Washington's 9th District

Adam Smith (D)vsDoug Basler (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+22 · Incumbent: Adam Smith (D)

99 in 100

Adam Smith favored>99%

All but certain for Adam Smith: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+22
  • Incumbent:Adam Smith (D)
  • District:9 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:Smith >99%
  • Margin:Smith +52.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Smith +52.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Smith +52.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Smith +45.0 to Smith +60.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Smith +52.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Smith ahead is positive, Basler ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+22, worth 38.3 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Adam Smith, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Smith +52.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Adam Smith (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Adam Smith (D, incumbent) vs Doug Basler (R)
Last time
2024: Adam Smith (D) took 66.9 with no Republican on the ballot.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
D+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats