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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WA-10 ]

Washington's 10th District

Marilyn Strickland (D)vsChris Chung (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+9 · Incumbent: Marilyn Strickland (D)

99 in 100

Marilyn Strickland favored>99%

All but certain for Marilyn Strickland: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+9
  • Incumbent:Marilyn Strickland (D)
  • District:10 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:Strickland >99%
  • Margin:Strickland +30.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Strickland +30.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Strickland +30.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Strickland +22.4 to Strickland +38.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Strickland +30.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Strickland ahead is positive, Chung ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+9, worth 15.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Marilyn Strickland, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Strickland +30.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Marilyn Strickland (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Marilyn Strickland (D, incumbent) vs Chris Chung (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 58.7, Republican 41.3. Strickland by 17.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
D+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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