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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MO-02 ]

Missouri's 2nd District

Fred Wellman (D)vsAnn Wagner (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Ann Wagner (R)

6 in 10

Ann Wagner favored59%

A slight edge for Ann Wagner: a 59 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Ann Wagner (R)
  • District:2 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Wagner 59%
  • Margin:Wagner +1.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Wagner +1.0
  • Latest poll:Remington, Sep 15, Wagner +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Wagner +1.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Wagner +1.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Wagner +7.6 to Wellman +4.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Wagner +1.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Wagner +1.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wellman ahead is positive, Wagner ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • RemingtonWagner +1
    Sep 15 · B- · 565 LV42 to 43 · 100% weight

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ann Wagner (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Fred Wellman (D) vs Ann Wagner (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 42.5, Republican 54.5. Wagner by 12.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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