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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-04 ]

Illinois's 4th District

Patty Garcia (D)vsLupe Castillo (R)

open seat · Lean: D+17 · Incumbent: Chuy García (D), not running

99 in 100

Patty Garcia favored>99%

All but certain for Patty Garcia: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Patty Garcia up 19.0.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+17
  • Incumbent:Chuy García (D), not running
  • District:4 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Garcia >99%
  • Margin:Garcia +31.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Garcia +19.0
  • Latest poll:The Bullfinch Group, Aug 03, Garcia +19.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Garcia +31.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Garcia +31.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Garcia +24.9 to Garcia +37.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Garcia +19.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Garcia +39.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Garcia ahead is positive, Castillo ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chuy García (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Patty Garcia (D) vs Lupe Castillo (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 67.5, Republican 27.3. García by 40.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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