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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MD-01 ]

Maryland's 1st District

Dan Schwartz (D)vsAndy Harris (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Andy Harris (R)

9 in 10

Andy Harris favored98%

All but certain for Andy Harris: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Andy Harris up 17.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Andy Harris (R)
  • District:1 of 8 in Maryland
  • Odds:Harris 98%
  • Margin:Harris +12.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Harris +17.5
  • Latest poll:Z to A Research, Jul 27, Harris +13.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Harris +12.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Harris +12.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Harris +18.5 to Harris +6.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Harris +17.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Harris +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Schwartz ahead is positive, Harris ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Z to A ResearchHarris +13
    Jul 27 · unrated · 482 LV39 to 52 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Harris +17.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Andy Harris (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Dan Schwartz (D) vs Andy Harris (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.4, Republican 59.4. Harris by 22.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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