Michigan's 7th District

William Lawrence (D)vsTom Barrett (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Tom Barrett (R)

6 in 10

William Lawrence favored64%

A slight edge for William Lawrence: a 64 percent chance of winning. Polls: Tom Barrett up 1.5.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:an even district
Incumbent:Tom Barrett (R)
District:7 of 13 in Michigan
Odds:Lawrence 64%
Margin:Lawrence +2.4, give or take 4.8
Polls:4, averaging Barrett +1.5
Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Aug 13, Lawrence +2.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lawrence +2.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Lawrence +2.4
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Barrett +3.7 to Lawrence +8.5 (80 percent)
Poll average: Barrett +1.5 across 4 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Lawrence +5.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lawrence ahead is positive, Barrett ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

Global Strategy GroupLawrence +2
Aug 13 · B/C49 to 47 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Barrett +1.1
Data for ProgressBarrett +1
Jun 30 · C+ · 772 LV45 to 46 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Barrett +8.5
Public Policy PollingLawrence +1
Apr 25 · B+ · 519 RV46 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Barrett +2.9
Public Policy PollingLawrence +4
Oct 28 · B+ · 557 RV43 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Lawrence +4.6

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Aug 13	n/aLV	Lawrence +249 to 47adjusted Barrett +1.1	0%
Data for ProgressDemocratic sponsor	C+	Jun 30	772LV	Barrett +145 to 46adjusted Barrett +8.5	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Apr 25	519RV	Lawrence +146 to 45adjusted Barrett +2.9	0%
Public Policy Polling	B+	Oct 28	557RV	Lawrence +443 to 39adjusted Lawrence +4.6	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Tom Barrett (R), running for another term.
On the ballot: William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R, incumbent)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 46.6, Republican 50.3. Barrett by 3.7.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean: Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
William Lawrence
Lawrence on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Tom Barrett
Barrett on Ballotpedia ↗

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