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[ House // NJ-02 ]

New Jersey's 2nd District

Zack Mullock (D)vsJeff Van Drew (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Jeff Van Drew (R)

89 in 100

Jeff Van Drew favored89%

Very likely for Jeff Van Drew: a 89 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jeff Van Drew up 13.4.

  • Margin:Drew +7.7, give or take 4.7
  • Polls:2, averaging Drew +13.4
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Oct 10, Drew +10.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.4
  • District:2 of 12 in New Jersey

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Drew +7.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.7 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Drew +7.7
Uncertainty
give or take 4.7 points, the usual size of a miss
Likely range
Drew +13.7 to Drew +1.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Drew +13.4 across 2 polls, about as much information as 1 fresh polls
Starting point
Drew +3.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mullock ahead is positive, Drew ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Impact ResearchDrew +10
    Oct 10 · B/C40 to 50 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Drew +13.4
  • Public Policy PollingDrew +10
    May 22 · B+ · 505 RV36 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Drew +11.8

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // FEC filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Personal finances // Official disclosures

Loading the disclosure links.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jeff Van Drew (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Zack Mullock (D) vs Jeff Van Drew (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 41.2, Republican 58.1. Drew by 16.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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