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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NJ-07 ]

New Jersey's 7th District

Rebecca Bennett (D)vsThomas Kean Jr. (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Thomas Kean Jr. (R)

8 in 10

Rebecca Bennett favored79%

Likely for Rebecca Bennett: a 79 percent chance of winning. Polls: Rebecca Bennett up 5.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:an even district
  • Incumbent:Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
  • District:7 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Bennett 79%
  • Margin:Bennett +5.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Bennett +5.0
  • Latest poll:StimSight Research, Sep 12, Bennett +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bennett +5.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bennett +5.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kean +1.0 to Bennett +11.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Bennett +5.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Bennett +5.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bennett ahead is positive, Kean ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • StimSight ResearchBennett +5
    Sep 12 · unrated · 498 LV47 to 42 · 100% weight
  • Z to A ResearchBennett +4
    May 26 · unrated · 430 LV47 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Kean +0.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Thomas Kean Jr. (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 46.4, Republican 51.8. Kean by 5.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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