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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-07 ]

Ohio's 7th District

Brian Poindexter (D)vsMax Miller (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Max Miller (R)

7 in 10

Max Miller favored67%

Likely for Max Miller: a 67 percent chance of winning. Polls: Max Miller up 1.8.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Max Miller (R)
  • District:7 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Miller 67%
  • Margin:Miller +2.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Miller +1.8
  • Latest poll:Bedrock Polling, Aug 10, Miller +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Miller +2.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Miller +2.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Miller +8.9 to Poindexter +3.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Miller +1.8 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Miller +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Poindexter ahead is positive, Miller ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Bedrock PollingMiller +5
    Aug 10 · unrated · 866 LV39 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Miller +9.5
  • Tavern ResearchPoindexter +8
    Aug 04 · unrated · 635 LV54 to 46 · 0% weight
    adjusted Poindexter +5.0
  • GBAOMiller +1
    Jun 20 · B/C · 500 LV43 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Miller +4.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Max Miller (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.1, Republican 51.1. Miller by 15.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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