Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 14 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-10 ]

Ohio's 10th District

Kristina Knickerbocker (D)vsMike Turner (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Mike Turner (R)

6 in 10

Mike Turner favored56%

A slight edge for Mike Turner: a 56 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Mike Turner (R)
  • District:10 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Turner 56%
  • Margin:Turner +1.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Knickerbocker +0.2
  • Latest poll:DCCC Targeting Team, Oct 13, Knickerbocker +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:14 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Turner +1.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Turner +1.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Turner +7.1 to Knickerbocker +5.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Knickerbocker +0.2 across 3 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Turner +1.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Knickerbocker ahead is positive, Turner ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • DCCC Targeting TeamKnickerbocker +3
    Oct 13 · B/C · 535 LV47 to 44 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Knickerbocker +0.2
  • Global Strategy GroupTurner +5
    Jul 23 · B/C · 700 LV40 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Turner +7.5
  • FM3 ResearchTurner +7
    Jul 12 · B/C41 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Turner +10.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // FEC filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Turner (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.2, Republican 57.6. Turner by 18.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index
The raters
Cook Lean R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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