Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // VA-01 ]

Virginia's 1st District

Shannon Taylor (D)vsRob Wittman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Rob Wittman (R)

6 in 10

Shannon Taylor favored56%

A slight edge for Shannon Taylor: a 56 percent chance of winning. Polls: Shannon Taylor up 2.6.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+3
  • Incumbent:Rob Wittman (R)
  • District:1 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:Taylor 56%
  • Margin:Taylor +1.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:4, averaging Taylor +2.6
  • Latest poll:The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, Sep 28, Taylor +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Taylor +1.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Taylor +1.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Wittman +5.1 to Taylor +7.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Taylor +2.6 across 4 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Wittman +0.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Taylor ahead is positive, Wittman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Rob Wittman (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rob Wittman (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 43.6, Republican 56.4. Wittman by 12.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats