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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-01 ]

California's 1st District

Mike McGuire (D)vsJames Gallagher (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+7 · Incumbent: James Gallagher (R)

9 in 10

Mike McGuire favored99%

All but certain for Mike McGuire: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+7
  • Incumbent:James Gallagher (R)
  • District:1 of 52 in California
  • Odds:McGuire 99%
  • Margin:McGuire +17.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McGuire +17.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McGuire +17.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McGuire +9.4 to McGuire +25.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McGuire +17.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McGuire ahead is positive, Gallagher ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+7, worth 12.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (James Gallagher, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McGuire +17.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
James Gallagher (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Mike McGuire (D) vs James Gallagher (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.7, Republican 65.3. LaMalfa by 30.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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