Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-11 ]

California's 11th District

Connie Chan (D)vsNo candidate

open seat · Lean: D+36 · Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D), not running

Unopposed

No Republican is on the ballot, so the seat goes to Connie Chan. The model counts it as decided.

  • Seat:Unopposed
  • Lean:D+36
  • Incumbent:Nancy Pelosi (D), not running
  • District:11 of 52 in California
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Chan +72.5

With one side unopposed the margin is a formality.

Projected margin
Chan +72.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Decided
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Chan +72.5 before any polls

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls, and none needed: one side is unopposed. The model marks the seat as decided.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Nancy Pelosi (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Connie Chan (D) vs nobody on the Republican side
Last time
2024: Democrat 81.0, Republican 19.0. Pelosi by 62.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+36 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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