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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-10 ]

California's 10th District

Mark DeSaulnier (D)vsJeff Frese (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+18 · Incumbent: Mark DeSaulnier (D)

99 in 100

Mark DeSaulnier favored>99%

All but certain for Mark DeSaulnier: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+18
  • Incumbent:Mark DeSaulnier (D)
  • District:10 of 52 in California
  • Odds:DeSaulnier >99%
  • Margin:DeSaulnier +46.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

DeSaulnier +46.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
DeSaulnier +46.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
DeSaulnier +38.1 to DeSaulnier +53.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
DeSaulnier +46.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: DeSaulnier ahead is positive, Frese ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+18, worth 31.3 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Mark DeSaulnier, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of DeSaulnier +46.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mark DeSaulnier (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Mark DeSaulnier (D, incumbent) vs Jeff Frese (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 66.5, Republican 33.5. DeSaulnier by 33.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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