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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-08 ]

California's 8th District

John Garamendi (D)vsRudy Recile (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+19 · Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

99 in 100

John Garamendi favored>99%

All but certain for John Garamendi: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+19
  • Incumbent:John Garamendi (D)
  • District:8 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Garamendi >99%
  • Margin:Garamendi +47.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Garamendi +47.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Garamendi +47.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Garamendi +39.8 to Garamendi +55.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Garamendi +47.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Garamendi ahead is positive, Recile ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+19, worth 33.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (John Garamendi, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Garamendi +47.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Garamendi (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
John Garamendi (D, incumbent) vs Rudy Recile (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 74.0, Republican 26.0. Garamendi by 48.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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