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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-06 ]

California's 6th District

Richard Pan (D)vsKevin Kiley (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+5 · Incumbent: Kevin Kiley (R)

9 in 10

Richard Pan favored97%

Very likely for Richard Pan: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+5
  • Incumbent:Kevin Kiley (R)
  • District:6 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Pan 97%
  • Margin:Pan +13.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pan +13.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Pan +13.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Pan +6.0 to Pan +21.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Pan +13.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pan ahead is positive, Kiley ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+5, worth 8.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Kevin Kiley, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Pan +13.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kevin Kiley (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Richard Pan (D) vs Kevin Kiley (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 57.6, Republican 42.4. Bera by 15.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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