Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // CA-09 ]

California's 9th District

Josh Harder (D)vsJohn McBride (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+8 · Incumbent: Josh Harder (D)

99 in 100

Josh Harder favored>99%

All but certain for Josh Harder: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+8
  • Incumbent:Josh Harder (D)
  • District:9 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Harder >99%
  • Margin:Harder +28.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Harder +28.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Harder +28.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Harder +20.7 to Harder +36.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Harder +28.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Harder ahead is positive, McBride ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+8, worth 13.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Josh Harder, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Harder +28.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Josh Harder (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Josh Harder (D, incumbent) vs John McBride (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.8, Republican 48.2. Harder by 3.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats