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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-05 ]

California's 5th District

Michael Masuda (D)vsTom McClintock (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)

9 in 10

Tom McClintock favored95%

Very likely for Tom McClintock: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Tom McClintock (R)
  • District:5 of 52 in California
  • Odds:McClintock 95%
  • Margin:McClintock +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McClintock +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McClintock +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McClintock +20.1 to McClintock +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McClintock +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Masuda ahead is positive, McClintock ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Tom McClintock, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McClintock +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tom McClintock (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Michael Masuda (D) vs Tom McClintock (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.2, Republican 61.8. McClintock by 23.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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