Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-16 ]

California's 16th District

Sam Liccardo (D)vsPeter Soulé (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+25 · Incumbent: Sam Liccardo (D)

99 in 100

Sam Liccardo favored>99%

All but certain for Sam Liccardo: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+25
  • Incumbent:Sam Liccardo (D)
  • District:16 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Liccardo >99%
  • Margin:Liccardo +58.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Liccardo +58.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Liccardo +58.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Liccardo +50.3 to Liccardo +66.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Liccardo +58.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Liccardo ahead is positive, Soulé ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+25, worth 43.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sam Liccardo, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Liccardo +58.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sam Liccardo (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sam Liccardo (D, incumbent) vs Peter Soulé (R)
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+25 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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