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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-22 ]

California's 22nd District

Randy Villegas (D)vsDavid Valadao (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: David Valadao (R)

7 in 10

Randy Villegas favored73%

Likely for Randy Villegas: a 73 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+1
  • Incumbent:David Valadao (R)
  • District:22 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Villegas 73%
  • Margin:Villegas +3.9, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Valadao +0.4
  • Latest poll:Tulchin Research, Jun 21, Villegas +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Villegas +3.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Villegas +3.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Valadao +2.2 to Villegas +10.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Valadao +0.4 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Villegas +6.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Villegas ahead is positive, Valadao ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Tulchin ResearchVillegas +4
    Jun 21 · B/C · 800 LV48 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Valadao +0.4

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
David Valadao (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Randy Villegas (D) vs David Valadao (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 46.6, Republican 53.4. Valadao by 6.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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