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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-23 ]

California's 23rd District

Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)vsJay Obernolte (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Jay Obernolte (R)

9 in 10

Jay Obernolte favored92%

Very likely for Jay Obernolte: a 92 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Jay Obernolte (R)
  • District:23 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Obernolte 92%
  • Margin:Obernolte +10.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Obernolte +10.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Obernolte +10.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Obernolte +18.4 to Obernolte +2.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Obernolte +10.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hodge ahead is positive, Obernolte ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+9, worth 15.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Jay Obernolte, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Obernolte +10.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jay Obernolte (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) vs Jay Obernolte (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.9, Republican 60.1. Obernolte by 20.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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