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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-24 ]

California's 24th District

Salud Carbajal (D)vsBob Smith (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Salud Carbajal (D)

99 in 100

Salud Carbajal favored>99%

All but certain for Salud Carbajal: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Salud Carbajal (D)
  • District:24 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Carbajal >99%
  • Margin:Carbajal +37.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Carbajal +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Carbajal +37.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Carbajal +29.4 to Carbajal +45.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Carbajal +37.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Carbajal ahead is positive, Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Salud Carbajal, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Carbajal +37.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Salud Carbajal (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Salud Carbajal (D, incumbent) vs Bob Smith (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 62.7, Republican 37.3. Carbajal by 25.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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