Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // CA-36 ]

California's 36th District

Ted Lieu (D)vsHouston Brignano (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+21 · Incumbent: Ted Lieu (D)

99 in 100

Ted Lieu favored>99%

All but certain for Ted Lieu: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+21
  • Incumbent:Ted Lieu (D)
  • District:36 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Lieu >99%
  • Margin:Lieu +51.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lieu +51.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lieu +51.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lieu +43.3 to Lieu +59.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lieu +51.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lieu ahead is positive, Brignano ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+21, worth 36.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Ted Lieu, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lieu +51.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ted Lieu (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ted Lieu (D, incumbent) vs Houston Brignano (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.7, Republican 31.3. Lieu by 37.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats