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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-38 ]

California's 38th District

Hilda Solis (D)vsPedro Casas (R)

open seat · Lean: D+8 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

99 in 100

Hilda Solis favored>99%

All but certain for Hilda Solis: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+8
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:38 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Solis >99%
  • Margin:Solis +23.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Solis +23.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Solis +23.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Solis +15.9 to Solis +31.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Solis +23.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Solis ahead is positive, Casas ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+8, worth 13.9 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Solis +23.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Hilda Solis (D) vs Pedro Casas (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 59.8, Republican 40.2. Sánchez by 19.6. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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