Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-40 ]

California's 40th District

No candidatevsKen Calvert (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Young Kim (R)

Unopposed

No Democrat is on the ballot, so the seat goes to Ken Calvert. The model counts it as decided.

  • Seat:Unopposed
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:Young Kim (R)
  • District:40 of 52 in California
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Calvert +4.9

With one side unopposed the margin is a formality.

Projected margin
Calvert +4.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Decided
Poll average
Calvert +4.4 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Calvert +5.3 before any polls

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Tulchin ResearchTie
    Jan 19 · B/C · 800 LV44 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Calvert +4.4

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Young Kim (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
nobody on the Democratic side vs Ken Calvert (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 44.7, Republican 55.3. Kim by 10.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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