Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // CA-41 ]

California's 41st District

Linda Sánchez (D)vsMitch Clemmons (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+9 · Incumbent: Linda Sánchez Redistricted from the 38th district (D)

99 in 100

Linda Sánchez favored>99%

All but certain for Linda Sánchez: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+9
  • Incumbent:Linda Sánchez Redistricted from the 38th district (D)
  • District:41 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Sánchez >99%
  • Margin:Sánchez +30.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Sánchez +30.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Sánchez +30.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Sánchez +22.4 to Sánchez +38.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Sánchez +30.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Sánchez ahead is positive, Clemmons ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+9, worth 15.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Linda Sánchez Redistricted from the 38th district, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Sánchez +30.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Linda Sánchez Redistricted from the 38th district (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Linda Sánchez (D) vs Mitch Clemmons (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 48.3, Republican 51.7. Calvert by 3.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats