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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-45 ]

California's 45th District

Derek Tran (D)vsChuong Vo (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Derek Tran (D)

99 in 100

Derek Tran favored>99%

All but certain for Derek Tran: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Derek Tran (D)
  • District:45 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Tran >99%
  • Margin:Tran +19.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Tran +19.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Tran +19.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Tran +12.0 to Tran +27.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Tran +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Tran ahead is positive, Vo ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+3, worth 5.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Derek Tran, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Tran +19.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Derek Tran (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Derek Tran (D, incumbent) vs Chuong Vo (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 50.1, Republican 49.9. Tran by 0.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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