California's 48th District

Marni von Wilpert (D)vsJim Desmond (R)

open seat · Lean: D+2 · Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R), not running

9 in 10

Marni von Wilpert favored97%

Very likely for Marni von Wilpert: a 97 percent chance of winning. Polls: Marni von Wilpert up 8.8.

Seat:Open seat
Lean:D+2
Incumbent:Darrell Issa (R), not running
District:48 of 52 in California
Odds:Wilpert 97%
Margin:Wilpert +11.5, give or take 4.8
Polls:4, averaging Wilpert +8.8
Latest poll:SurveyUSA, Oct 07, Wilpert +9.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Wilpert +11.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Wilpert +11.5
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Wilpert +5.4 to Wilpert +17.6 (80 percent)
Poll average: Wilpert +8.8 across 4 polls, worth 0.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Wilpert +13.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wilpert ahead is positive, Desmond ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

SurveyUSAWilpert +9
Oct 07 · A · 518 LV47 to 38 · 92% weight
adjusted Wilpert +9.3
SurveyUSAWilpert +3
Sep 01 · A · 522 LV45 to 42 · 8% weight
adjusted Wilpert +3.3
Lake Research PartnersWilpert +2
Jul 14 · A/B · 500 LV48 to 46 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Desmond +0.6
Blueprint PollingWilpert +3
Oct 26 · B/C · 517 LV43 to 40 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Desmond +1.5

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
SurveyUSA	A	Oct 07	518LV	Wilpert +947 to 38adjusted Wilpert +9.3	92%
SurveyUSA	A	Sep 01	522LV	Wilpert +345 to 42adjusted Wilpert +3.3	8%
Lake Research PartnersDemocratic sponsor	A/B	Jul 14	500LV	Wilpert +248 to 46adjusted Desmond +0.6	0%
Blueprint PollingDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Oct 26	517LV	Wilpert +343 to 40adjusted Desmond +1.5	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Darrell Issa (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot: Marni von Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 40.7, Republican 59.3. Issa by 18.6.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean: D+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Marni von Wilpert
Wilpert on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Jim Desmond
Desmond on Ballotpedia ↗

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