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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-51 ]

California's 51st District

Sara Jacobs (D)vsRicardo Cabrera (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+10 · Incumbent: Sara Jacobs (D)

99 in 100

Sara Jacobs favored>99%

All but certain for Sara Jacobs: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+10
  • Incumbent:Sara Jacobs (D)
  • District:51 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Jacobs >99%
  • Margin:Jacobs +32.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Jacobs +32.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Jacobs +32.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jacobs +24.2 to Jacobs +40.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Jacobs +32.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jacobs ahead is positive, Cabrera ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+10, worth 17.4 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sara Jacobs, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Jacobs +32.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sara Jacobs (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sara Jacobs (D, incumbent) vs Ricardo Cabrera (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 60.7, Republican 39.3. Jacobs by 21.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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