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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-52 ]

California's 52nd District

Juan Vargas (D)vsJeff Belle (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+11 · Incumbent: Juan Vargas (D)

99 in 100

Juan Vargas favored>99%

All but certain for Juan Vargas: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+11
  • Incumbent:Juan Vargas (D)
  • District:52 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Vargas >99%
  • Margin:Vargas +33.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Vargas +33.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Vargas +33.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Vargas +25.9 to Vargas +41.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Vargas +33.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Vargas ahead is positive, Belle ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+11, worth 19.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Juan Vargas, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Vargas +33.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Juan Vargas (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Juan Vargas (D, incumbent) vs Jeff Belle (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 66.3, Republican 33.7. Vargas by 32.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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