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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-14 ]

Illinois's 14th District

Lauren Underwood (D)vsJames Marter (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Lauren Underwood (D)

99 in 100

Lauren Underwood favored>99%

All but certain for Lauren Underwood: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Lauren Underwood (D)
  • District:14 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Underwood >99%
  • Margin:Underwood +19.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Underwood +19.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Underwood +19.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Underwood +12.0 to Underwood +27.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Underwood +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Underwood ahead is positive, Marter ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+3, worth 5.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Lauren Underwood, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Underwood +19.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lauren Underwood (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lauren Underwood (D, incumbent) vs James Marter (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 55.1, Republican 44.9. Underwood by 10.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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