Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-15 ]

Illinois's 15th District

Jennifer Todd (D)vsMary Miller (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+20 · Incumbent: Mary Miller (R)

99 in 100

Mary Miller favored>99%

All but certain for Mary Miller: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+20
  • Incumbent:Mary Miller (R)
  • District:15 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Miller >99%
  • Margin:Miller +29.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Miller +29.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Miller +29.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Miller +37.5 to Miller +21.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Miller +29.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Todd ahead is positive, Miller ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+20, worth 34.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mary Miller, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Miller +29.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mary Miller (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jennifer Todd (D) vs Mary Miller (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Mary Miller (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
R+20 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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