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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-16 ]

Illinois's 16th District

Paul Nolley (D)vsDarin LaHood (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Darin LaHood (R)

9 in 10

Darin LaHood favored97%

Very likely for Darin LaHood: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Darin LaHood (R)
  • District:16 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:LaHood 97%
  • Margin:LaHood +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

LaHood +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
LaHood +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
LaHood +21.9 to LaHood +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
LaHood +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Nolley ahead is positive, LaHood ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Darin LaHood, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of LaHood +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Darin LaHood (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Paul Nolley (D) vs Darin LaHood (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Darin LaHood (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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