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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-17 ]

Illinois's 17th District

Eric Sorensen (D)vsDillan Vancil (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Eric Sorensen (D)

99 in 100

Eric Sorensen favored>99%

All but certain for Eric Sorensen: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Eric Sorensen (D)
  • District:17 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Sorensen >99%
  • Margin:Sorensen +19.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Sorensen +19.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Sorensen +19.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Sorensen +12.0 to Sorensen +27.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Sorensen +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Sorensen ahead is positive, Vancil ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+3, worth 5.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Eric Sorensen, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Sorensen +19.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Eric Sorensen (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Eric Sorensen (D, incumbent) vs Dillan Vancil (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.4, Republican 45.6. Sorensen by 8.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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