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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MO-01 ]

Missouri's 1st District

Wesley Bell (D)vsPaul Berry (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+29 · Incumbent: Wesley Bell (D)

99 in 100

Wesley Bell favored>99%

All but certain for Wesley Bell: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+29
  • Incumbent:Wesley Bell (D)
  • District:1 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Bell >99%
  • Margin:Bell +65.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bell +65.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bell +65.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bell +57.2 to Bell +73.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bell +65.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bell ahead is positive, Berry ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+29, worth 50.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Wesley Bell, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bell +65.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Wesley Bell (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Wesley Bell (D, incumbent) vs Paul Berry (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 75.9, Republican 18.4. Bell by 57.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
D+29 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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