Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // MO-05 ]

Missouri's 5th District

Emanuel Cleaver (D)vsRick Brattin (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+12 · Incumbent: Emanuel Cleaver (D)

99 in 100

Emanuel Cleaver favored>99%

All but certain for Emanuel Cleaver: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+12
  • Incumbent:Emanuel Cleaver (D)
  • District:5 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Cleaver >99%
  • Margin:Cleaver +35.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cleaver +35.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cleaver +35.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cleaver +27.6 to Cleaver +43.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Cleaver +35.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cleaver ahead is positive, Brattin ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+12, worth 20.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Emanuel Cleaver, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Cleaver +35.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Emanuel Cleaver (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Emanuel Cleaver (D, incumbent) vs Rick Brattin (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 60.2, Republican 36.4. Cleaver by 23.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
D+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats