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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MO-08 ]

Missouri's 8th District

Chris Reichard (D)vsJason Smith (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+27 · Incumbent: Jason Smith (R)

99 in 100

Jason Smith favored>99%

All but certain for Jason Smith: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+27
  • Incumbent:Jason Smith (R)
  • District:8 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Smith >99%
  • Margin:Smith +41.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Smith +41.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Smith +41.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Smith +49.7 to Smith +33.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Smith +41.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Reichard ahead is positive, Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+27, worth 47.0 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Jason Smith, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Smith +41.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jason Smith (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chris Reichard (D) vs Jason Smith (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 21.8, Republican 76.2. Smith by 54.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
R+27 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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