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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MO-03 ]

Missouri's 3rd District

Bethany Mann (D)vsBob Onder (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+13 · Incumbent: Bob Onder (R)

99 in 100

Bob Onder favored>99%

All but certain for Bob Onder: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+13
  • Incumbent:Bob Onder (R)
  • District:3 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Onder >99%
  • Margin:Onder +17.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Onder +17.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Onder +17.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Onder +25.4 to Onder +9.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Onder +17.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mann ahead is positive, Onder ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+13, worth 22.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Bob Onder, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Onder +17.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Bob Onder (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Bethany Mann (D) vs Bob Onder (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.3, Republican 61.3. Onder by 26.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
R+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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