Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // MO-04 ]

Missouri's 4th District

Jordan Herrera (D)vsMark Alford (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+21 · Incumbent: Mark Alford (R)

99 in 100

Mark Alford favored>99%

All but certain for Mark Alford: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+21
  • Incumbent:Mark Alford (R)
  • District:4 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Alford >99%
  • Margin:Alford +31.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Alford +31.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Alford +31.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Alford +39.3 to Alford +23.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Alford +31.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Herrera ahead is positive, Alford ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+21, worth 36.5 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mark Alford, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Alford +31.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mark Alford (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jordan Herrera (D) vs Mark Alford (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 26.4, Republican 71.1. Alford by 44.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
R+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats