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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MO-06 ]

Missouri's 6th District

Josh Smead (D)vsChris Stigall (R)

open seat · Lean: R+19 · Incumbent: Sam Graves (R), not running

99 in 100

Chris Stigall favored>99%

All but certain for Chris Stigall: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+19
  • Incumbent:Sam Graves (R), not running
  • District:6 of 8 in Missouri
  • Odds:Stigall >99%
  • Margin:Stigall +23.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Stigall +23.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Stigall +23.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Stigall +31.1 to Stigall +15.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Stigall +23.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Smead ahead is positive, Stigall ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+19, worth 33.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Stigall +23.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sam Graves (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Josh Smead (D) vs Chris Stigall (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 26.9, Republican 70.7. Graves by 43.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.5, Harris 40.1. Trump by 18.4.
Lean
R+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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