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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // SC-02 ]

South Carolina's 2nd District

Zyon Khalifa (D)vsJoe Wilson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Joe Wilson (R)

8 in 10

Joe Wilson favored83%

Likely for Joe Wilson: a 83 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Joe Wilson (R)
  • District:2 of 7 in South Carolina
  • Odds:Wilson 83%
  • Margin:Wilson +7.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Wilson +7.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Wilson +7.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Wilson +14.9 to Khalifa +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Wilson +7.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Khalifa ahead is positive, Wilson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+7, worth 12.2 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Joe Wilson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Wilson +7.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Joe Wilson (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Zyon Khalifa (D) vs Joe Wilson (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 40.3, Republican 59.7. Wilson by 19.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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