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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // SC-04 ]

South Carolina's 4th District

Courtney McClain (D)vsWilliam Timmons (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: William Timmons (R)

9 in 10

William Timmons favored97%

All but certain for William Timmons: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:William Timmons (R)
  • District:4 of 7 in South Carolina
  • Odds:Timmons 97%
  • Margin:Timmons +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Timmons +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Timmons +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Timmons +21.9 to Timmons +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Timmons +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McClain ahead is positive, Timmons ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (William Timmons, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Timmons +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
William Timmons (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Courtney McClain (D) vs William Timmons (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.3, Republican 59.9. Timmons by 22.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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