South Carolina's 1st District

Nancy Lacore (D)vsJenny Costa Honeycutt (R)

open seat · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Nancy Mace (R), not running

8 in 10

Jenny Costa Honeycutt favored77%

Likely for Jenny Costa Honeycutt: a 77 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jenny Costa Honeycutt up 10.7.

Seat:Open seat
Lean:R+6
Incumbent:Nancy Mace (R), not running
District:1 of 7 in South Carolina
Odds:Honeycutt 77%
Margin:Honeycutt +4.7, give or take 4.8
Polls:4, averaging Honeycutt +10.7
Latest poll:co/efficient, Oct 01, Honeycutt +12.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Honeycutt +4.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Honeycutt +4.7
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Honeycutt +10.8 to Lacore +1.4 (80 percent)
Poll average: Honeycutt +10.7 across 4 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Honeycutt +0.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lacore ahead is positive, Honeycutt ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

co/efficientHoneycutt +12
Oct 01 · B · 837 LV41 to 53 · 94% weight
adjusted Honeycutt +10.7
Public Policy PollingHoneycutt +6
Sep 10 · B+ · 536 RV42 to 48 · 6% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Honeycutt +9.9
GQRHoneycutt +2
Jul 22 · A-41 to 43 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Honeycutt +4.3
Public Policy PollingHoneycutt +3
Dec 06 · B+ · 645 LV36 to 39 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Honeycutt +6.9

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
co/efficient	B	Oct 01	837LV	Honeycutt +1241 to 53adjusted Honeycutt +10.7	94%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Sep 10	536RV	Honeycutt +642 to 48adjusted Honeycutt +9.9	6%
GQRDemocratic sponsor	A-	Jul 22	n/aLV	Honeycutt +241 to 43adjusted Honeycutt +4.3	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Dec 06	645LV	Honeycutt +336 to 39adjusted Honeycutt +6.9	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Nancy Mace (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot: Nancy Lacore (D) vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 41.7, Republican 58.3. Mace by 16.6.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean: R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Nancy Lacore
Lacore on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Honeycutt on Ballotpedia ↗

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