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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // SC-06 ]

South Carolina's 6th District

Jim Clyburn (D)vsJohn Peterson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Jim Clyburn (D)

99 in 100

Jim Clyburn favored>99%

All but certain for Jim Clyburn: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Jim Clyburn (D)
  • District:6 of 7 in South Carolina
  • Odds:Clyburn >99%
  • Margin:Clyburn +37.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Clyburn +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Clyburn +37.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Clyburn +29.4 to Clyburn +45.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Clyburn +37.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Clyburn ahead is positive, Peterson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Jim Clyburn, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Clyburn +37.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jim Clyburn (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jim Clyburn (D, incumbent) vs John Peterson (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 59.6, Republican 36.8. Clyburn by 22.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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