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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // SC-05 ]

South Carolina's 5th District

Mallory Dittmer (D)vsWes Climer (R)

open seat · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Ralph Norman (R), not running

9 in 10

Wes Climer favored89%

Very likely for Wes Climer: a 89 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Ralph Norman (R), not running
  • District:5 of 7 in South Carolina
  • Odds:Climer 89%
  • Margin:Climer +9.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Climer +9.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Climer +9.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Climer +17.1 to Climer +1.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Climer +9.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dittmer ahead is positive, Climer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Climer +9.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ralph Norman (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Mallory Dittmer (D) vs Wes Climer (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.4, Republican 63.6. Norman by 27.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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